July's base case is playing out almost to the letter. After giving back a fifth of its value in three months, Spanish origin has spent four weeks carving a floor in the mid-€340s to €350s, not because buyers came back but because sellers stopped chasing. August's loudest story, the fires, turns out to be the wrong supply story: the drought is the real one. The regulators arrived on both sides of the Atlantic, the market's next appointment is 2 October, and, provided the crop lands in the central band, we see a modest firming toward €370–390/100 kg into the new year.

The slide that began in April still hasn't found its floor. The EU-US trade deal closed the tariff window everyone had been positioning for, the recovery-crop consensus hardened, and Spanish origin has now given back twenty percent from its late-March peak, with July falling hardest. Meanwhile, two verified heatwaves are quietly working on the 2026/27 crop, and the market is choosing not to look. The July report walks through what happened, why, and what to do about it.

May didn't firm; it rolled over. After peaking at EUR 443/100 kg in late March and holding the 430s through April, Spanish origin broke lower in the first days of May, printing EUR 416 by the 10th and heading south. The tariff-window narrative that should have supported prices lost the argument to a favourable 2026/27 flowering read and post-peak profit-taking. This report resets the price picture and reframes the strategy around a correcting, not firming, market.

Following the price-stabilization signals of February-March, April 2026 sees Spanish origin EVOO consolidating in the EUR 4.30-4.50/kg range as the flowering window opens across the western Mediterranean. The Section 122 tariff regime remains in force at 10%, with the July 24 expiry now framing all sales-timing decisions. Soil moisture is favourable, but a warm, dry final third of April has reintroduced caution on the 2026/27 outlook.

The global olive oil market enters March 2026 navigating a complex transition. After the dramatic price spikes of 2023-2024 (driven by consecutive drought-affected harvests), origin prices have corrected sharply but remain above pre-crisis levels. The correction has been uneven across producing countries, creating significant price differentials that are reshaping trade flows and competitive dynamics globally.