Information available at 21 October 2026. Prices in €/kg for standard Spanish bulk extra virgin at origin, unless otherwise stated.

A buyer can look at Spain’s crop forecast and decide to wait a few weeks. A mill about to pay for olives, labour and electricity often has to make a decision sooner. This difference will shape the market more than the first sales of new oil or any one week’s price movement. Spain is expecting substantially more production, and its largest selling period is arriving before there is much evidence that buyers need all of it at once.

September complicates the picture. Spanish sales rose to an estimated 137,604 tonnes, a substantial improvement on August, and the oil carried into the new campaign came in below our earlier estimate. Those figures give the market some support. They do not remove the need to sell oil to pay for a large harvest. We think prices could fall below 3€/kg during the campaign, then recover over the course of 2027 as that pressure eases and doubts about the following harvest grow.

The sales gap

MAPA’s first estimate puts Spanish production at 1.603 million tonnes in 2026/27. Provisional stocks at the end of September were about 357,000 tonnes. Together, those figures imply nearly 1.96 million tonnes of potential availability before imports. The production figure will change as mills report actual yields; the oil is still largely on the trees. Buyers nonetheless have a reason to believe they will be offered plenty over the next several months.

Spain sold an estimated 1.488 million tonnes during the campaign that has just ended. Suppose the ministry’s crop estimate proves accurate and sales merely repeat that result. On that basis, stocks would finish the new campaign around 472,000 tonnes before additional imports, roughly 115,000 tonnes above their opening level. To prevent stocks from rising, sales would have to increase by about 115,000 tonnes over last season, plus enough to absorb whatever Spain imports. The calculation puts a scale on the improvement required of demand; the eventual result will depend on the crop and how buyers respond to the price.