1. Executive Summary
The global olive oil market enters March 2026 navigating a complex transition. After the dramatic price spikes of 2023-2024 (driven by consecutive drought-affected harvests), origin prices have corrected sharply but remain above pre-crisis levels. The correction has been uneven across producing countries, creating significant price differentials that are reshaping trade flows and competitive dynamics globally.
In Spain, EVOO at origin climbed through February from EUR 407/100 kg in late January to EUR 439/100 kg by mid-February (+6% YoY), supported by lower-than-expected production after heavy December rainfall disrupted harvesting. In Italy, prices held at EUR 650/100 kg but are down 30% year-on-year thanks to a production recovery. Greece tracked Spain at EUR 440/100 kg (+6% YoY). Tunisia continues to undercut European origins significantly, with conventional EVOO at approximately EUR 3.40/kg.
Global production for the 2025/26 campaign is estimated at 3.44 million tons (-4% from 2024/25), still well above the crisis lows of 2023/24. Consumption is projected to reach 3.25 million tons (+1%), with the EU consumer price index for olive oil recording its first annual decline in four years (-23% in 2025). The most significant development in February was the US Supreme Court's ruling on the 20th striking down IEEPA-based tariffs as unconstitutional. President Trump immediately replaced them with a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, effective for 150 days. For the olive oil sector, this means a shift from discriminatory 15% EU tariffs to a uniform 10% rate: a partial reprieve that levels the competitive playing field with non-EU producers.
2. Origin Prices by Country
Spain (Jaen)
Spanish EVOO at origin climbed steadily through February 2026, rising from EUR 407/100 kg in late January to EUR 439/100 kg by the week of February 16-22, a 6% increase compared to the same week of the previous campaign. Several factors drove this movement upward despite Spain's dominant global position. Cumulative production fell short of expectations. Heavy rainfall in November and December disrupted harvesting across Andalusia, reducing effective picking days by roughly two weeks. December output of 416,471 tons was 30% below December 2024. Cumulative production through December stood at approximately 716,372 tons, and total stocks of 715,735 tons were 24% below the prior year. In Jaen (the world's single largest olive oil region), persistent rain and limited labor availability contributed to an estimated 45% year-on-year decline, with some of the crop dropping to the ground as collection costs exceeded potential returns. On the demand side, both domestic and international buyers have increased purchases at these more attractive price levels. Conventional EVOO currently trades between EUR 4.50-5.00/kg, and certified organic at approximately EUR 5.50/kg. As of early March, the Oleista platform records an average Spanish origin price of EUR 4.50/kg.
Italy (Bari)
Italian EVOO at Bari held stable at EUR 650/100 kg through January and February 2026. This represents a steep 30% year-on-year decline, yet prices remain significantly above Spanish levels, reflecting Italy's structural premium driven by strong brand recognition and limited domestic supply. Production recovered to approximately 300,000 tons in 2025/26 (+30% from the previous campaign), led by strong output in Apulia and Calabria where timely summer rainfall offset spring drought effects. Despite the recovery, demand from large Italian bottlers (who source heavily from Spain, Tunisia, and Greece for blending) remains robust, supporting continued price differentiation.