1. Executive Summary
The story we expected to write this month was about firming. It isn't. May is the month Spanish origin rolled over.
The top was late March: EUR 443/100 kg in the March 26 window. April was a holding month, origin oscillating in the 430s-440s and closing around EUR 442. Then the first days of May broke the range: our index was at EUR 416 by May 10, a clean step below everything April had printed, and the Poolred sessions since have come in lower still. This is not a one-print wobble; turnover was healthy on the way down, which means it's genuine selling, not a thin-market air pocket.
What's striking is why it's falling, because the obvious catalyst points the other way. The July 24 Section 122 expiry should be pulling US demand forward (buyers front-loading ahead of a possible tariff-free window), and that backloading is real. But it's being outweighed by two quieter forces: a 2026/27 flowering read that, heat pockets aside, looks broadly favourable across the western Mediterranean, and simple post-peak profit-taking after the run into late March. When the bullish story is the loud one and prices still fall, that tells you something about positioning.
Italy is the exception, easing only gently: Bari around EUR 620/100 kg, still carrying a large premium on its short crop. Greece is tracking Spain down to the EUR 415-420 area. Portugal sits just below Spain. And Tunisia is the quiet tell of the month: holding and even firming toward EUR 3.75-3.85/kg while Spain falls, quietly compressing the gap that has defined the trade all year.
2. Origin Prices by Country
Spain (Jaén)
Jaén opened May in the low 420s and was at EUR 416/100 kg by the May 10 cutoff, down from the EUR 443 March peak and below the whole April range. Poolred turnover stayed healthy through the decline, so the market is clearing at lower levels rather than gapping on no volume. Combined mill, bottler and bulk stocks sit around 395 kt, still well below the same point last year, but in a falling market that tightness is buying sellers nothing. Retail bulk: EUR 4.20-4.45/kg conventional, EUR 4.90-5.15/kg organic, with more downside to come as origin feeds through.