1. Executive Summary
April was a holding month. Spain origin pulled back inside a EUR 430-455/100 kg band after the February rally and stayed there. Italy at Bari eased a touch to EUR 630/100 kg, still 32% below where it was a year ago, the production rebound finally feeding through. Greece tracks Spain at EUR 445. Tunisia is the structural floor at EUR 3.40-3.50/kg, and Portugal keeps dipping in and out below Spanish levels.
Two things matter for the next quarter. The 10% Section 122 tariff on EU exports to the US has flattened the playing field versus the IEEPA regime, but the July 24 expiry now governs every inventory call. And the western Mediterranean is in its flowering window: conditions mostly fine, but with an early heat spike at the end of April that the market has filed away as a warning.
Retail consumers keep seeing prices drift down. Eurostat shows another 4-5% YoY decline through Q1 2026, on top of last year's 23% correction. Spain, Greece and Portugal still lead.
2. Origin Prices by Country
Spain (Jaen)
Jaén oscillated EUR 432-451/100 kg through April and closed at EUR 442, flat versus mid-February but +5% YoY. Poolred turnover stayed strong, ~6,500 t/session, so the market is clearing at these levels rather than drifting. Cumulative production through March was around 1.35 Mt; combined stocks ~22% below the prior campaign. Output light versus expectation, demand active: neither tight nor loose. Retail bulk at EUR 4.50-4.85/kg conventional, EUR 5.30-5.60/kg organic.
