Tunisia 2026/27 olive oil crop forecast

The Ministry of Agriculture and the national observatory ONAGRI put the official figure on the Tunisian crop around the opening of the campaign. The 2024/25 forecast was reported on 8 October, and in 2025 the government's ministerial council on the season met on 25 October, ahead of the harvest. No official figure for 2026/27 had appeared by 9 October 2026, so the date has moved to late October. It is taken from that cadence, not from an announcement.

Ahead of it, the sector has put figures of its own. The Chambre nationale des producteurs d'olives said on 3 September that it expects 250–300 kt, some 40% below the 2025/26 record, putting the fall down to the trees' alternate bearing rather than drought alone. On 9 October Midani Dhaoui, president of the farmers' union Synagri, put it lower, at 200–250 kt, about half the 500 kt of 2025/26. Neither is a production figure.

Tunisia is the largest olive oil exporter outside the EU, and nearly all of its crop is sold abroad. In 2025/26 it shipped 327 kt in the first seven months of the campaign, up 58%. The size of the next crop determines how hard Tunisian bulk presses on the EU market: through the 56,700 t duty-free quota that reopens on 1 January, through inward processing into Spain, and in third markets where it competes with Spanish oil head-on.