The Ministry of Agriculture and the national observatory ONAGRI put the first figure on the Tunisian crop in early October: the 2024/25 forecast was reported on 8 October, and the 2025/26 record of roughly 450–500 kt followed the same calendar. The date below is taken from that cadence, not from an announcement.

Tunisia is the largest olive oil exporter outside the EU, and nearly all of its crop is sold abroad. In 2025/26 it shipped 327 kt in the first seven months of the campaign, up 58%. The size of the next crop determines how hard Tunisian bulk presses on the EU market: through the 56,700 t duty-free quota that reopens on 1 January, through inward processing into Spain, and in third markets where it competes with Spanish oil head-on.