Ismea and Unaprol present the first official estimate of the Italian crop at the opening of the campaign. The 2024/25 estimate (224 kt, −32%) was presented on 27 September; the 2025/26 recovery to roughly 300 kt (+30%) was flagged in the same window a year later. The date below follows that late-September cadence and has not been announced.

Italy matters to the Spanish price twice over: it is the second-largest producer and the largest buyer of Spanish bulk oil. A short Italian crop pulls Spanish bulk north across the Mediterranean and tightens the balance at origin; a full one leaves Spanish sellers competing with Puglia in every export market.