Ismea–Unaprol first Italian production estimate 2026/27

Ismea and Unaprol present the first official estimate of the Italian crop at the opening of the campaign. The 2024/25 estimate (224 kt, −32%) was presented on 27 September, and the 2025/26 recovery to roughly 300 kt (+30%) was flagged in the same window a year later.

This year the window passed without a figure. Ismea's campaign note of 25 September closes 2025/26 at 325 kt (+31%) and says that a national number for 2026/27 would be false precision while conditions differ so much between regions and groves. No date has been announced for the estimate, so the record carries a placeholder in mid-October until one is.

Italy matters to the Spanish price twice over: it is the second-largest producer and the largest buyer of Spanish bulk oil. A short Italian crop pulls Spanish bulk north across the Mediterranean and tightens the balance at origin. A full one leaves Spanish sellers competing with Puglia in every export market.