AICA September data: 2025/26 campaign closes
A confirmed carry-in below 550 kt entering a smaller crop is the strongest upward configuration on the calendar; above 620 kt it argues the surplus survived the campaign.
Conditional if confirmed · the desk's reading
The campaign year runs to 30 September, so the September release is the final accounting of 2025/26: total declared production, total offtake and the closing stock the new crop is stacked on top of. It turns the carry-in from an estimate into a fact.
The closing stock also feeds the arithmetic of the new marketing standard: the 120% availability threshold that decides whether oil is withheld from the market is computed from the new crop estimate plus this carry-in. Dated on AICA's usual second-week cadence rather than an announced date.
- Date
- 2026-10-13 · Estimated date, inferred from the publication's usual cadence
- Category
- Market data
- Previous
- 683.3 kt in store at 30 June
- Expected
- Final 2025/26 output, offtake and carry-in
Source: AICA / MAPA, monthly market situation advance · Checked 2026-08-11