AICA September data: 2025/26 campaign closes
Benchmarked on carry-in rather than on mid-campaign stock: the 2024/25 campaign closed on 290.5 kt. Below 290 kt the new crop starts on less oil than last year and is the genuinely upward configuration. Between 290 and 380 kt is comfortable and neutral, which is where a September offtake of 120 to 125 kt would land it. Above 420 kt the surplus survived the campaign and the read turns downward.
Conditional if confirmed · the desk's reading
The campaign year runs to 30 September, so the September release is the final accounting of 2025/26: total declared production, total offtake and the closing stock the new crop is stacked on top of. It turns the carry-in from an estimate into a fact.
The closing stock also feeds the arithmetic of the new marketing standard: the 120% availability threshold that decides whether oil is withheld from the market is computed from the new crop estimate plus this carry-in. Dated on AICA's usual second-week cadence rather than an announced date.
- Date
- 2026-10-13 · Estimated date, inferred from the publication's usual cadence
- Category
- Market data
Source: AICA / MAPA, monthly market situation advance · Checked 2026-09-21
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