European Commission short-term outlook, autumn edition

The Commission's short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets used to carry a chapter on olive oil, with production, consumption, trade and stocks for the campaign ahead: the first consolidated EU-level balance after the national crop estimates.

The autumn 2026 edition appeared on the Commission's page between 9 October, when it was not there, and 20 October, when the page was last updated. The page gives it no date. It covers cereals and oilseeds for 2026/27 and dairy and meat for 2026, with EU cereals at 262 Mt, 9.6% below 2025/26 after the summer's heat and drought, and says nothing on olive oil.

The Commission's Agri-food data portal says its short-term balance sheets for olive oil and table olives, as for wine and the fruit and vegetables it covers, are only updated until summer 2025. The summer 2026 edition gave olive oil one sentence, on 2025/26. An EU-wide read on 2026/27 now has to come from the national estimates and the IOC.