Marketing standard 2026/27: decision on withholding oil

Once the Order is approved, MAPA decides whether the 2026/27 campaign triggers the withdrawal mechanism and, if so, what share of production each operator must withhold. Minister Planas said in Jaén on 1 October that the decision will be taken in the first fortnight of November by resolution of the Dirección General de Producciones y Mercados, with the carry-in at 30 September in hand. The draft Order sets 15 November as the latest date for the percentage, so the record carries that day as an estimate.

The test is arithmetic: opening stocks plus the production estimate against 120% of the average of that sum over the six preceding campaigns, about 1,844,000 t. With the national aforo at 1,602.6 kt and the carry-in still to be published, Planas put available supply at around two million tonnes.

The mechanism has never been activated since the Royal Decree of 2021. Withheld oil stays with its owner and returns to the market later in the campaign or the next, so it moves supply in time rather than removing it.