Market catalyst

ICQRF Frantoio Italia: August stocks (Italy)

ITMarket dataMedium
Previous
233.4 ktEVOO 185.4 kt (31 Jul)
Expected (as recorded)
~215 kt (OliveTerm estimate)
Published
~200 ktItalian EVOO ~88 kt (31 Aug)
Below the expectation

Source: ICQRF Frantoio Italia (MASAF) · Checked 2026-09-21

Why it mattered

The official report did not appear on its usual cadence, but the ICQRF gave the register reading at a conference on 10 September: just under 200 kt, below our ~215 kt estimate and an August drawdown of some 33 kt, faster than July's 25.1 kt. Italy still enters 2026/27 far above the 162 kt it held a year earlier, so the overhang meeting the new crop is smaller than feared and still large.

Downward if confirmed · the desk's reading

The July release put Italian stocks at 233,377 t, down 9.7% on June but 43.9% above July 2025, with extra virgin at 185,373 t and only 61.4% of the total of Italian origin.

Italy carries this overhang into the 2026/27 campaign while origin quotations have roughly halved year on year, so the August level sets how much unsold oil meets the new crop.

Dated on the ICQRF's usual cadence of the 10th rather than an announced date.

Date
2026-09-10 · Estimated date, inferred from the publication's usual cadence
Category
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