Market catalyst
Northern Hemisphere 2026/27 campaign start
Mediterranean basinHarvestMedium
Outcome
Campaign open. The national aforo, published the same day, puts the Spanish crop at 1,602.6 kt, 23% above 2025/26. Olivum expects Portuguese mills to start early after the summer heatSource: OliveTerm calendar · Checked 2026-10-05
- Expected outcome (as recorded)
- First mill yields
- Context
- 1,298.5 kt in 2025/26
Why it mattered
First mill yields are the earliest evidence on the size of the crop, ahead of any consolidated estimate.
Neutral if confirmed · the desk's reading
The formal start of the new campaign. Early deliveries and the first yield readings from Andalusian mills are the market's first hard evidence on the size of the crop, ahead of any consolidated estimate.
- Date
- 2026-10-01 · Date announced by the publisher
- Category
- Harvest
More market releases ahead
- ≈ 15 Nov 2026Marketing standard 2026/27: decision on withholding oilSpainRegulation
- ≈ 15 Nov 2026IOC 124th Plenary SessionMorocco / globalConference
- Date to be announcedTunisia 2026/27 olive oil crop forecastTunisiaCrop estimate
- Date to be announcedTürkiye national olive oil harvest forecast 2026/27TürkiyeCrop estimate
- Date to be announcedIsmea–Unaprol first Italian production estimate 2026/27ItalyCrop estimate
- ≈ 20 Nov 2026INE Portugal agricultural forecasts: olive productionPortugalCrop estimate