Andalusian aforo: first official 2026/27 crop estimate
Source: Junta de Andalucía: aforo of the olive crop, 2026/27, presented on 29 September 2026 · Checked 2026-09-30
- Expected (as recorded)
- Below 2025/26
- Previous
- 1,080.9 kt (2025/26)
The Junta's aforo puts Andalusian 2026/27 output at 1,261.2 kt, 29.3% above 2025/26 production (975.5 kt), 16.7% above last year's first aforo (1,080.9 kt) and 44.1% above the five-year average. That is above the 1.1 Mt line that confirms a third comfortable campaign and activates the downside case. Jaen leads with 575 kt (45.6%); olive for milling is put at 6,849.2 kt and organic oil at 60.4 kt. ASAJA Cordoba had asked for a postponement after a dry, hot September, so the yield risk sits with the fruit, not the tree count.
Neutral if confirmed · the desk's reading
The Junta de Andalucía's aforo is the first official estimate of the coming Andalusian harvest and, by extension, of roughly three quarters of Spanish output. It is the most price-sensitive scheduled release of the year.
The 2025/26 aforo was presented on 2 October 2025 at 1,080,900 t for Andalusia, 5.5% below the previous campaign.
The Junta has scheduled the 2026/27 aforo for Tuesday 29 September in Jaén. ASAJA Córdoba has asked it to postpone the presentation after a dry, hot September, arguing that field data gathered weeks ago may overstate the oil the fruit will yield.
- Date
- 2026-09-29 · Date announced by the publisher
- Category
- Crop estimate
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