Olive Oil Calendar
Market catalyst
Andalusian aforo — first official 2026/27 crop estimate
AndalusiaCrop estimateHigh
Why it matters
An Andalusian estimate below 1.0 Mt activates the upside case. Above 1.1 Mt confirms a third comfortable campaign and activates the downside case.
Neutral if confirmed · the desk's reading
The Junta de Andalucía's aforo is the first official estimate of the coming Andalusian harvest and, by extension, of roughly three quarters of Spanish output. It is the most price-sensitive scheduled release of the year.
The 2025/26 aforo was presented on 2 October 2025 at 1,080,900 t for Andalusia, 5.5% below the previous campaign. The Junta has kept to the first days of October in recent years, which is where the date below comes from; it has not yet been announced.
- Date
- 2026-10-02 · Estimated date, inferred from the publication's usual cadence
- Category
- Crop estimate
- Previous
- 1,080.9 kt (2025/26)
- Expected
- Below 2025/26
Source: Junta de Andalucía — 2025/26 aforo, presented 2 October 2025 · Checked 2026-07-31