Olive Oil Calendar
Market catalyst
AEMET seasonal outlook, September–November
AndalusiaWeatherMedium
Why it matters
A dry signal into September would be the first hard argument for a smaller crop, and the desk would move its call up on it.
Upward if confirmed · the desk's reading
AEMET updates its seasonal outlook monthly on a rolling three-month window. The September edition covers the period in which the 2026/27 crop finishes setting: rain in September lifts fruit weight and oil yield, while a dry run through the same weeks locks in a smaller crop.
The market treats this as a probability update rather than a forecast: a repeated below-normal signal is usually enough to firm bids at origin. AEMET does not publish a fixed release day, so the date below is indicative.
- Date
- 2026-09-01 · Estimated date, inferred from the publication's usual cadence
- Category
- Weather
- Previous
- Warm tercile, Jul–Sep
- Expected
- Rolling 3-month update
- Actual
- AEMET SON 2026 (Sep-Oct-Nov) update: warm tercile favored across most of Spain, but the warm anomaly is weaker in the southwest/Andalusia (only slightly above normal there vs. clearly warm elsewhere). Precipitation seen above average mainly in the north/Mediterranean; no clear above/below-normal signal specific to Andalusia in this release.
Source: AEMET, seasonal prediction (monthly rolling update) · Checked 2026-09-01