AEMET updates its seasonal outlook monthly on a rolling three-month window. The September edition covers the period in which the 2026/27 crop finishes setting: rain in September lifts fruit weight and oil yield, while a dry run through the same weeks locks in a smaller crop.

The market treats this as a probability update rather than a forecast — a repeated below-normal signal is usually enough to firm bids at origin. AEMET does not publish a fixed release day, so the date below is indicative.