Harvested olives being sorted in Tuscany. Photo: Joana Abreu / Unsplash.
Spain's legal deadline falls later in November, but mills enter the week of 2–6 November with a decision expected and the main harvest gathering pace.
Spain's olive oil mills enter November with compulsory-storage rules in force and the main harvest advancing. An activation resolution would determine how much of their monthly production must be held back, while extraction yields will begin to show how much oil the new crop can deliver.
In its 30 October bulletin based on POOLred data, COAG Jaén noted that barely any transactions in newly harvested oil were taking place as harvesting got underway.
The week ahead
The week of 2–6 November
- During the week: Luis Planas's 26 October statement pointed to a decision in the first week of November. The binding order gives the resolution a mid-month deadline: Article 5 says publication before 15 November, while Article 9 specifies the starting date and percentage by 15 November at the latest.
- Through Friday 6 November: follow mill yields in Jaén and new-crop offers. No fixed daily release time for these observations has been confirmed.
What storage would mean for mills
Order APA/1145/2026 makes activation conditional on opening stocks plus estimated production reaching at least 120% of the average of that sum over the preceding six campaigns. The percentage withheld is calculated separately and capped at 20% of estimated production.
Affected mills would store the prescribed share of monthly declared output, at their own premises or elsewhere. That would commit tank space and working capital until the oil could return to the market under the order's release and review provisions. The actual percentage and starting date will determine the size of that commitment.
The MAPA's 30 October announcement puts opening stocks at 357,040 tonnes and forecast production at 1,602,596 tonnes. Its earlier regional forecast assigns 1,261,200 tonnes to Andalucía, including 575,000 tonnes in Jaén. The ministry has warned that summer heat, especially in rain-fed groves, could affect oil yields.
Italy's delivery premium
Teatro Naturale's 27 October report described small new-oil lots for delivery by early November at 5.50–6.00€/kg, against contracts for production from mid-November around 4.50€/kg. These refer to different delivery windows and potentially different specifications.
Offers made during 2–6 November will give buyers more recent terms to compare as milling progresses. The Spanish resolution, if issued, will add the percentage of production that mills must keep outside the available supply.