Olives awaiting processing at a mill in Andalusia. Photo: John Cameron / Unsplash.
Spain's farm minister expects a decision on possible withdrawals in the first week of November. US packaged imports show Tunisia gaining ground.
What happened this week
Planas points to a withdrawal decision in early November
Speaking in Luxembourg on 26 October, agriculture minister Luis Planas said Spain expected to decide whether to activate the withdrawal mechanism in the first week of November. He expected the campaign's ministerial order to be signed and published before the end of October, according to Europa Press's report of his remarks.
The order would establish the framework. A subsequent resolution would determine whether the mechanism is activated and any proportion of production to be withheld, following the procedure set out in MAPA's July proposal.
MAPA's 21 October statement put the expected crop at about 1.6 million tonnes and opening stocks at roughly 357,000 tonnes. A withdrawal would reduce the amount offered during the campaign and could support origin prices, depending on its scale and duration.
Italian new oil carries different delivery prices
Teatro Naturale reported on 27 October that limited early lots of Italian new-crop oil, due for delivery by the beginning of November, were being contracted at 5.50–6.00€/kg. Contracts for oil to be produced from mid-November were around 4.50€/kg. These are reported contract indications for different delivery periods, with small volumes so far.
In Puglia, the same report placed previous-crop oil at 3.80–4.20€/kg, depending on quality. A buyer needing oil immediately faces a different offer from one able to wait for production later in November. The delivery date belongs alongside the price when comparing those lots.
Tunisia expands within a smaller US packaged market
US imports of packaged olive oil fell 12.6% to 173,324 tonnes in January–August 2026, according to Olimerca's 16 October analysis. Italy supplied 60,982 tonnes, about 30% less than a year earlier, while Spain shipped 58,109 tonnes, down roughly 12%.
Tunisia supplied 37,012 tonnes, an increase of about 50%. Portugal rose 92.9% to 2,587 tonnes, from a much smaller base.
The table records a substantial change in the origin mix of packaged imports. It does not identify the brands or explain individual purchasing decisions. Its scope is also narrower than the overall Tunisian export performance covered in Wednesday's Midweek Brief.
The next policy checkpoint
The next dated step in the timetable Planas announced is an activation resolution in the first week of November. Its terms would establish any percentage of production to be withheld. The minister's announcement describes the expected sequence; the published order and resolution will provide the operative rules.
Sources
- MAPA, July consultation on the 2026/27 marketing rules, and MAPA, 21 October statement: crop and opening-stock figures.
- Europa Press, 26 October: Planas's remarks in Luxembourg, with Óleo Revista, 28 October, as later coverage of the same remarks.
- Teatro Naturale, 27 October: early new-oil contracts, later-delivery contracts and Puglia previous-crop indications. A trade publication's market observations, not a national Italian price.
- Olimerca, 16 October: US packaged imports, January–August 2026 against the same months of 2025, in tonnes converted from kilograms.