As the new olive oil campaign gets underway across the Mediterranean, regional production forecasts are beginning to reveal significant differences in harvest conditions. Spain's national outlook remains substantial, although expectations vary considerably between producing regions. Meanwhile, Italy has announced a new purchasing programme for certified olive oil, and Tunisia has released figures confirming the scale of its recent export expansion.
What's happening this week
Spain's harvest prospects differ sharply between regions
While Spain is expecting a substantial national harvest, the latest regional forecasts suggest that production conditions have been far from uniform.
In Catalonia, the Siurana Protected Designation of Origin expects olive oil production to fall by approximately 35–40% compared with last season. According to its president, Pere Albà, the lack of summer rainfall has affected olive development, while early extraction yields have declined significantly.
Initial estimates place oil yields at around 11–12%, compared with 16–17% last season. Despite the reduction in production, the first assessments indicate good oil quality.
The outlook is considerably different in Andalusia. The Estepa Protected Designation of Origin has started its campaign with expectations of producing approximately 40 million kilograms of olive oil, provided weather conditions remain favourable. The region has benefited from rainfall earlier in the year, allowing groves to recover from previous periods of drought.
These contrasting forecasts illustrate the limitations of looking exclusively at Spain's national production estimate. A strong harvest at country level can still coincide with significant losses in individual producing regions.
Italy allocates 16M€ to purchase certified olive oil
The Italian government has announced a 16M€ programme to purchase extra virgin olive oil with Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) and Protected Geographical Indication (PGI) certification.
The initiative, managed through the agricultural payments agency AGEA, provides for the acquisition of at least 1.81 million litres of certified extra virgin olive oil, packaged in one-litre containers, for distribution through food assistance programmes.
Financed through the European Social Fund Plus, the programme forms part of Italy's broader food assistance plan for 2027.
Agriculture Minister Francesco Lollobrigida presented the initiative as a way to support vulnerable households while strengthening the market for Italian certified products.
The programme is specifically directed towards PDO and PGI olive oils rather than the wider bulk market. It also provides an additional distribution channel for certified Italian products, connecting agricultural support with food assistance.
Tunisia reports 500,000 tonnes of production and strong export growth
Tunisia has released updated figures for its 2025/26 olive oil campaign, confirming an exceptionally strong year for the country's industry.
According to figures presented during a government meeting on 23 October, national olive oil production reached approximately 500,000 tonnes, compared with an average of 303,000 tonnes over the previous five seasons.
Exports reached 399,000 tonnes by the end of September 2026, with total shipments expected to reach approximately 415,000 tonnes by the end of the marketing year.
Bottled olive oil exports also performed strongly, reaching 60,000 tonnes, while organic olive oil exports amounted to 58,000 tonnes.
The figures underline Tunisia's growing importance in international olive oil trade. Beyond the expansion in bulk exports, the increase in bottled oil shipments is particularly relevant, reflecting the country's efforts to capture more value through packaging and direct access to international markets.
With another Mediterranean harvest now beginning, Tunisia's export capacity and commercial strategy will remain important factors to watch throughout the coming months.
Sources
- Oleorevista: La DOP Siurana prevé una caída de la cosecha de aceite de oliva del 35% al 40% en la campaña 2026/2027, October 2026.
- DOP Estepa: La D.O.P. Estepa inicia una nueva campaña de AOVE con estimación de mayor cosecha, 23 October 2026.
- Qualivita: Masaf, 16 milioni per sostenere l'Olio DOP e IGP e aiutare chi è in difficoltà, 23 October 2026. The tender sets a minimum of 1,809,954 litres.
- Business News: Huile d'olive, face aux enjeux de la nouvelle campagne, le gouvernement dégaine des mesures de soutien, 23 October 2026, reporting the restricted ministerial council of the same day.