Spain enters the final week of October with its marketing order still pending and new oil struggling to attract buyers. Tunisia has meanwhile announced financing for public purchases and a possible storage programme. Decisions on these measures could influence how much oil producers offer as the harvest develops.
What to watch
Spain approaches the 31 October deadline
Spain's framework sets 31 October as the latest date for approving a campaign's marketing order.[1] Speaking in Ciudad Real this week, Elena Busutil, the agriculture ministry's director general for agricultural production and markets, said the 2026/27 order was in the final stage of its procedure and had to be approved before 31 October. Its publication is among the main events to watch this week.[2]
Approval would establish the rules for intervention. Under the ministry's draft, a subsequent resolution would determine whether the activation conditions are met and the percentage of production to be withdrawn.[3]
Tunisia prepares financing for purchases and storage
Tunisia's government announced on Friday that TND150 million in bank financing would be mobilised for the National Olive Oil Office to buy domestically produced oil. The package also provides for a storage programme covering up to 60,000 tonnes for three months, if needed, with storage incentives and additional support for farmers capped at TND20 million.[4] The purchasing terms and the start of buying are the next developments to follow. In our view, the financing could give some producers more room to cover harvesting costs without accepting the first export offer. That support will become commercially meaningful as purchases take place; the storage programme remains conditional.
A mostly dry week for Spanish harvesting
AEMET's forecast for 26 October to 1 November points to generally settled weather, with rainfall well below normal and temperatures remaining high for the season. Maximum temperatures could exceed 25°C across parts of southern Spain and the Mediterranean area, despite some cooling around Tuesday and Wednesday.[5]
New oil looks for buyers around 3.50€/kg
Olimerca reported on Friday that new Spanish extra virgin olive oil was available at around 3.50€/kg. It also described limited buying interest, scarce early extra virgin supplies and growers delaying harvesting in response to low prices.[6]
The market enters this week with both sides waiting. Growers have little incentive to rush into sales at prices they consider inadequate, while buyers can look ahead to a larger choice of new oils. A firm decision on storage could change those calculations before the main harvest brings greater volumes.
Our read
We continue to expect pressure on standard oils as harvesting advances. Tunisia's financing could give some producers more room to choose when to sell, while a Spanish withdrawal could change the amount of oil available during the campaign.
For Spain, the immediate test is whether the order is approved by the deadline and how quickly the activation decision follows. A substantial withdrawal implemented early enough to influence harvest sales would lead us to reassess the near-term supply pressure. Until the terms are clear, we expect buyers to retain considerable room to negotiate.
Sources
- BOE: Royal Decree 84/2021, Article 3.3. Deadline for approval of a campaign's marketing order.
- Agroalimentarias CLM: Elena Busutil's remarks at the national olive oil day in Ciudad Real, published 23 October 2026. The order in the final stage of its procedure, to be approved before 31 October.
- MAPA: Draft marketing order for 2026/27, 23 July 2026. Proposed activation process and subsequent resolution.
- Mosaïque FM: Tunisian ministerial decisions for the olive oil campaign, 23 October 2026, reporting the government communiqué. Financing for ONH purchases and the conditional storage programme.
- AEMET: Forecast for 26 October to 15 November, issued 23 October 2026. Weather outlook for the coming week.
- Olimerca: Sin oferta ni precio en el mercado del aceite de oliva en origen, 23 October 2026. Reported availability around 3.50€/kg and market conditions.
Research checked on 25 October 2026. The "Our read" section and commercial implications are OliveTerm's assessment.