September's closing stock figures will help establish how much oil Spain is carrying into a season with a larger crop forecast. In Tunisia, harvesting is due to begin in Sidi Bouzid around mid-October, while Spanish operators enter their first full working week under new requirements for bulk oil shipments.
What to watch
Spain waits for the closing balance
Spain's agriculture ministry estimates olive oil production at 1.60 million tonnes for 2026/27, around 23% above the previous season. That forecast gives buyers reason to expect more supply over the coming months. The immediate question is how much oil remains available before the main harvest reaches the mills.[1]
AICA has extended the SIMO reporting deadline to Tuesday, 13 October, because the usual deadline fell on a Saturday and Monday is a national holiday. September's figures, when published, will complete the picture of the previous campaign and establish the stocks carried into the new one.[2]
The useful comparison will be between the volume sold during September and the oil still held by mills and packers. Stronger sales and a smaller carryover could encourage buyers to cover their immediate requirements. Slower sales and larger stocks would give them more room to wait for new oil. These figures will also help assess how much additional demand Spain needs to absorb the larger crop now forecast.
Tunisia approaches its first harvests
Sidi Bouzid's olive harvest is scheduled to start around mid-October, according to Tunisia's state news agency TAP. The regional forecast is approximately 350,000 tonnes of olives. As picking begins, attention will turn to the condition of the fruit and the amount of oil recovered at the mills.[3]
The wider outlook remains weaker than last season. On 10 October, Abdallah Sahraoui, a representative of the Tunisian olive growers' union, estimated that the national olive harvest could fall by 30–40%. That remains an industry estimate, with the final oil volume still dependent on the harvest and extraction yields.[4]
A smaller Tunisian crop could reduce the oil available to exporters later in the season. Its effect on prices will also depend on buying interest and competing offers from Spain. As new oil becomes available, completed export sales will help establish what buyers are prepared to pay.
New paperwork for Spanish bulk shipments
Spain's amended olive oil quality standard entered into force on 9 October. Under Royal Decree 808/2026, operators must upload the analysis report or equivalent signed classification document to REMOA, the electronic register for bulk oil movements. Receiving operators within Spain's olive oil sector must also confirm receipt in the system.[5]
For shipments to other EU member states or third countries, the Spanish operator holding the oil at dispatch is responsible for the notification. Mills and traders arranging bulk deliveries this week should check who uploads the classification document and who completes the required system notification.
Sources
- MAPA: Spanish olive oil production forecasts and market balances, forecast announced 1 October 2026.
- AICA: SIMO declaration deadline extended to 13 October.
- TAP: Sidi Bouzid harvest expected to reach 350,000 tonnes of olives, 30 September 2026.
- Webdo: Tunisian growers' estimate of a smaller harvest, 10 October 2026.
- BOE: Royal Decree 808/2026, published 8 October 2026; in force 9 October 2026.