China's planned tariff reduction would lower import costs from January. Italy's latest figures show considerably more oil in storage as the new campaign begins.
What's happening this week
China: a lower tariff expected from January
China's import tariff on olive oil is expected to fall from 10% to 5% from 1 January 2027, according to EU sources cited by EFE on Tuesday. The details follow the trade consultations held in Beijing on 8–9 October, which included olive oil among the products covered by the proposed tariff reductions.[1]
Spain is particularly well placed to benefit, supplying 77% of China's olive oil imports. Other European exporters selling into the Chinese market would benefit too. The Commission has described the concessions as a shared understanding, with the broader package still due to be assessed by European leaders. The lower rate has yet to enter into force.[2]
Italy: more oil available before the new harvest
Italy's latest stock report, published on 9 October, remains relevant to this week's selling conditions. ICQRF recorded 195,044 tonnes of oil in storage at the end of September, 46.7% more than a year earlier. Italian-origin extra virgin accounted for 82,195 tonnes, up 170.5%. Stocks had fallen since July, but the country entered the new campaign with considerably more oil available than last September.[3]
Our read
The planned Chinese tariff reduction gives exporters a reason to revisit their 2027 sales plans. European sellers also have substantial stocks to work through as the new harvest begins. Italy's larger inventories give buyers more choice and make the pace of sales an important part of the outlook for the coming months.