Olive Oil Price Forecast 2026

After two years of historic price highs, 2026 is shaping up as a year of gradual normalisation — but significant uncertainty remains. This article breaks down the key variables that will determine where olive oil prices end up by December 2026.

The Base Case: Moderate Decline

The consensus among Mediterranean market analysts points to a moderate price decline through 2026, contingent on a normal-to-above-average harvest in Spain. If Andalusia delivers good production numbemrs, EVOO bulk prices could retreat toward the €3.5–€4/kg range by Q4 2026.

This would still represent prices well above pre-2023 norms, reflecting a structural repricing of olive oil as a premium commodity.

Upside Risk Scenarios

Several factors could prevent this normalisation:

Climate risk remains the most significant variable. Olive trees in Andalusia are entering the critical flowering period (April–June), and any heat stress or late frosts could damage the next harvest before it begins.

Demand resilience is also a factor. Olive oil has gained significant shelf presence in North America and Asia-Pacific over the past three years, adding structural demand that didn't exist at previous price lows.

Geopolitical disruption to shipping routes or currency volatility (particularly EUR/USD) could add additional volatility.

Downside Risk Scenarios

If Spain, Italy, and Greece all deliver strong harvests simultaneously — as happened in 2021/22 — the market could overshoot to the downside, with bulk EVOO potentially dropping below €4/kg. This scenario appears unlikely given current weather patterns but cannot be ruled out.

Key Dates to Watch

• April–May 2026: Andalusian flowering period — early crop estimates
• June 2026: IOC preliminary harvest forecast
• September 2026: Harvest commencement in early-ripening zones

OliveTerm publishes monthly updates tracking these developments as they unfold.