Spanish aforo: first national 2026/27 crop estimate (MAPA)
Source: MAPA, aforo de producción de aceite de oliva, campaña 2026/2027, presented in Jaén on 1 October 2026 · Checked 2026-10-05
- Expected (as recorded)
- Above 2025/26, after the Andalusian aforo of 29 September
- Previous
- 1,302.0 kt (2025/26)
With carry-in added, Planas puts available supply at around two million tonnes, above the 1,844,000 t threshold of the marketing standard, so the question moves from the size of the crop to how much of it is withheld. The estimate is the ceiling of the season's supply, not yet a tonne of oil: yields in the rainfed groves after a dry, hot September are the variable to watch.
Conditional if confirmed · the desk's reading
The Ministry of Agriculture's aforo is the first official estimate of the whole Spanish crop, published two days after the Junta de Andalucía's regional aforo and folding it in. Minister Luis Planas presented it in Jaén on 1 October 2026.
The 2026/27 estimate is 1,602,596 t, 23% above the 1,301,979 t of 2025/26 and some 35% above the average of the six preceding campaigns. Andalusia accounts for 1,261.2 kt (+29.3%), Jaén alone for 575 kt; the rest of Spain grows about 4.6% in all, with Castilla-La Mancha (+10%) and Extremadura (+24%) up and Catalonia, Aragón and Murcia down.
MAPA calls the figures provisional: the weather of the coming weeks and the state of the fruit after the summer heat, above all in rainfed groves, will decide oil yields and the final result.
- Date
- 2026-10-01 · Date announced by the publisher
- Category
- Crop estimate
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