The first Spanish and Portuguese oils are reaching the market as buyers weigh the cost of buying early. Heavy rain in eastern Spain and further protests in Italy could complicate harvest operations, while SIAL Paris continues until Wednesday.
What to watch
New oil arrives in Spain and Portugal
Spain enters the week with little buying activity at origin. In its assessment published on Friday, Olimerca reported selected premium early extra virgin lots offered around €4/kg, with lower-quality new oils closer to €3.60/kg. Some extra virgin oils from the previous campaign were being offered at €3.25–3.30/kg, with limited trading. These are asking prices for particular lots, whose quality and harvest timing limit direct comparisons.[1]
The same report noted transactions involving new Portuguese oil at around €3.70/kg.[1] This week's negotiations should provide more evidence of how much buyers will pay for fresh oil and whether buying broadens as more new oil becomes available. We will be watching completed sales and the volumes behind them as harvesting progresses.
Heavy rain in eastern Spain
Heavy rain is forecast to continue into Monday along parts of Spain's Mediterranean coast and in the Balearic Islands. Protección Civil's warning issued on Friday identified Sunday and Monday as the expected peak of the episode, with a risk of local flooding.[3] AEMET expects conditions to begin easing from Tuesday, although the precise distribution of rainfall remains uncertain.[2] Where groves are affected, access, picking schedules and transport to mills could all be disrupted. The agricultural consequences will depend on local rainfall totals and ground conditions.
Further protests in Italy
In Italy, Coldiretti has called a demonstration outside Tuscany's regional council in Florence on Monday morning, seeking support for farms facing higher fuel and fertiliser costs.[4] Separately, Rai reported on Saturday that protests involving growers and hauliers continued in parts of southern Italy, with fuel shortages and transport disruption.[5] For olive businesses arranging collections and deliveries this week, the practical concern is whether local fuel supplies and transport services allow work to proceed as planned.
SIAL Paris enters its final days
SIAL Paris runs until Wednesday, 21 October, leaving exporters three further days of meetings at Paris Nord Villepinte.[6] Sunday's programme included a presentation on high phenolic olive oil, with scientific evidence, health claims and market positioning among the advertised themes.[7] For companies presenting premium oils, the remaining meetings provide an opportunity to test buyers' interest in those differences and discuss the evidence, packaging and price needed to support them.
The work will continue after the stands close. Exporters can use the rest of the week to send samples, confirm specifications and turn initial enquiries into delivery proposals. Those follow-ups should help establish which discussions have a realistic prospect of becoming orders for the new campaign.
Reporting cutoff: 18 October 2026. Price observations refer to the dates and types of quotation described above. Forward-looking passages identify matters to monitor during the coming week.
Sources
- Olimerca: Parada técnica en el mercado del aceite de oliva, 16 October 2026. Reported Spanish asking prices and transactions involving new Portuguese oil.
- AEMET: Forecast for 19 October to 8 November, issued 16 October 2026.
- Protección Civil: Mediterranean coast and Balearic Islands severe-weather warning, 16 October 2026.
- Coldiretti Toscana: Demonstration scheduled for 19 October in Florence, 18 October 2026.
- Rai News: Fuel protests and transport disruption in southern Italy, 17 October 2026.
- SIAL Paris: Official dates and venue, 17–21 October 2026.
- SIAL Paris: High Phenolic Olive Oil, The Rising Star of the Global Olive Oil Market, programme entry for 18 October 2026, 11:00–11:15; updated 16 October.