Spain entered the 2026/27 olive oil campaign with 356,914 tonnes in storage, according to provisional AICA figures reported by Olimerca on 14 October. Closing stocks were 66,374 tonnes higher than the 290,540 tonnes recorded a year earlier, an increase of 22.8%. The country therefore begins the new season with a larger reserve to cover demand while the harvest gathers pace.
September commercial outflows reached 123,486 tonnes, showing continued movement of oil through the market in the final month of the campaign. Stocks at the end of the month were almost evenly divided between mills, which held 175,745 tonnes, and bottlers, with around 178,290 tonnes.
The larger carry-in comes ahead of an expected increase in production. Spain's agriculture ministry has provisionally forecast a harvest of 1.60 million tonnes for 2026/27, approximately 23% above the previous campaign. If realised, that crop, together with opening stocks, would provide almost 1.96 million tonnes of oil over the season before imports are included.
For buyers, the combination should ease pressure to secure supplies immediately as the new campaign begins. Existing inventories provide some room to wait for larger volumes of fresh oil and assess the quality and prices being offered. For mills, it could make the timing of sales more difficult: oil remaining from the previous harvest will compete for orders as new production becomes available, while buyers weigh their existing stocks against their purchasing needs.
September's outflows suggest that the market continues to absorb substantial volumes. The question over the coming months is whether that pace can be maintained as supply increases. Harvest progress and extraction yields will determine how much of the projected crop reaches the market; the pace of domestic sales and exports will determine how quickly it moves.