Andalusia accounts for almost all the expected increase in Spanish production, leaving the national outlook heavily dependent on the region's harvest.
Spain expects olive oil production to rise by 23% in the 2026/27 campaign, according to the first official national forecast published by the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAPA) on 1 October. The estimate would add roughly 300,000 tonnes to Spanish output compared with the previous season, substantially increasing potential supply for domestic and export markets. [1][2]
MAPA puts the Spanish crop at 1,602,596 tonnes, against 1,301,979 tonnes in 2025/26 and around 35% above the average of the preceding six campaigns. The geographical breakdown, however, shows how much of that recovery depends on Andalusia. The region is forecast to produce 1.261 million tonnes, up 29.3%, with Jaén alone expected to contribute 575,000 tonnes. According to OliveTerm calculations using MAPA's figures, Andalusia accounts for approximately 95% of the projected national increase. [2]
Across the rest of Spain, combined production is forecast to grow by only about 4.6%. Castilla-La Mancha and Extremadura are expected to increase output by 10% and 24% respectively, while Catalonia, Aragón and Murcia face declines. A larger Spanish crop will therefore coexist with weaker harvests in several regions, and the national growth rate gives a more favourable impression than the outlook facing some individual growers. [2]
Where Spain's extra olive oil is expected to come from
Forecast change in olive oil production, 2026/27 against 2025/26 · tonnes
Spain total: +300,617 tonnes (+23%)
| Region | Tonnes |
|---|---|
| Andalusia | 285,700 |
| Rest of Spain, net | 14,917 |
Andalusia accounts for about 95% of the forecast national increase. Elsewhere, gains in Extremadura and Castilla-La Mancha are partly offset by smaller crops in Catalonia, Aragón and Murcia.
Source: MAPA, Aforo de cosecha de aceite de oliva, campaña 2026/2027, regional table, 1 October 2026. Rest of Spain and Andalusia's share calculated by OliveTerm. Estimates are provisional.
The ministry attributes the stronger prospects to mild temperatures and abundant rainfall during spring, which supported flowering and fruit set in the main olive-growing areas. Presenting the forecast in Jaén, agriculture minister Luis Planas said the expected crop would help secure supplies and support stability in Spain's domestic and export markets. MAPA nevertheless stressed that the figures remain preliminary: weather over the coming weeks and the condition of the fruit after summer heat, particularly in rainfed groves, will influence oil yields and the final result. [1]
The production forecast arrives while a significant volume of oil from the outgoing campaign remains in the system. MAPA's latest monthly report recorded Spanish stocks of 476,100 tonnes at the end of August. Those are not the opening stocks for the new campaign, since September trading still has to be accounted for, but they provide useful context for the additional crop now expected. [3]
Demand will help determine how comfortably that oil can be sold. Provisional MAPA figures show that exports and domestic consumption together reached about 1.35 million tonnes between October 2025 and August 2026. The export market accounted for around 911,300 tonnes of that total, underlining its importance in moving Spanish production. [3]
Sources
- MAPA, first national olive oil crop forecast for 2026/27, 1 October 2026.
- MAPA, Aforo de cosecha de aceite de oliva, campaña 2026/2027, 1 October 2026. OliveTerm calculated Andalusia's share of the national increase and the growth rate outside Andalusia from the regional table on page 4.
- MAPA, monthly olive oil market report, data to 31 August 2026, issued 24 September 2026.