The region’s first estimate points to a larger Spanish crop in 2026/27, although the national forecast and autumn weather will determine how much confidence buyers can place in the outlook.
Andalusia expects to produce 1,261,200 tonnes of olive oil in the 2026/27 campaign, according to the regional government’s first harvest estimate, presented on Tuesday. The forecast puts output 23.9% above the previous campaign and 44% above the average of the past five, providing an early indication of a larger crop in Spain’s principal producing region. [1]
For the Spanish olive oil trade, the estimate offers a firmer basis for discussing next season’s availability. If realised, a larger Andalusian crop would give buyers more room to cover their requirements and producers more volume to sell. It does not, on its own, establish whether the market will be oversupplied: that will also depend on production elsewhere, stocks carried into the campaign and the pace of domestic consumption and exports.
Jaén is forecast to produce 575,000 tonnes, followed by Córdoba with 339,700 tonnes and Seville with 142,000 tonnes. Together, those three provinces account for about 84% of the regional estimate, according to OliveTerm calculations. [2]
Where Andalusia’s olive oil is expected to come from
Forecast olive oil production, 2026/27 campaign · tonnes
Andalusia total: 1,261,200 tonnes
| Province | Tonnes |
|---|---|
| Jaén | 575,000 |
| Córdoba | 339,700 |
| Seville | 142,000 |
| Other Andalusian provinces | 204,500 |
Jaén, Córdoba and Seville together account for approximately 84% of Andalusia’s forecast output.
Source: Junta de Andalucía’s aforo presentation, 29 September 2026, as reported by Cadena SER. Other provinces and combined share calculated by OliveTerm. Estimates are provisional.
Presenting the figures in Mengíbar, Andalusia’s agriculture minister, Ramón Fernández-Pacheco, said a wet winter had supported crop development, while temperatures well above normal had constrained its potential. The forecast therefore reflects both favourable water availability earlier in the growing season and the subsequent effects of heat. [2]
The figures remain provisional. The Junta describes its aforos as initial assessments of the expected harvest and cautions that subsequent weather and other conditions can alter the outcome. [3]
Tuesday’s announcement also covers Andalusia, rather than Spain as a whole. Agriculture minister Luis Planas said on Monday that he expected to publish the national forecast before the end of the week, once the autonomous communities had submitted their figures. That release should provide a fuller basis for assessing the Spanish production outlook. [4]
For buyers, a larger projected crop may reduce the urgency to secure all their needs early, provided their existing cover allows them to wait. For producers, it raises the question of how quickly to market the new oil if the harvest develops as expected. These are possible commercial responses, rather than evidence of a price move following the announcement. The next test is whether the national figures and the first results from mills support the prospect of greater availability that Andalusia’s estimate now presents.
Sources
- Europa Press: Andalusia’s 2026/27 harvest estimate, 29 September 2026.
- Cadena SER: provincial forecasts and the regional minister’s assessment, 29 September 2026.
- Junta de Andalucía: scope and provisional nature of harvest estimates.
- Pressdigital / agencies: Planas on the timing of Spain’s national forecast, 28 September 2026.