OliveTerm Market Outlook · 15 October 2026

Buyers have little reason to build stocks ahead of a large Spanish harvest. More oil should become available over the coming months, while growers and mills will have bills to pay before much of the crop has been sold. We expect these conditions to keep standard extra virgin in bulk at origin mainly between 3.00€ and 3.40€/kg around January, using Spain as the reference for the wider Iberian market.

The Spanish agriculture ministry's preliminary forecast of 1.60 million tonnes is 23% above the previous campaign. Adding provisional closing stocks of 356,914 tonnes brings the total close to 1.96 million tonnes before imports, across all olive oil categories. Actual production will depend on extraction yields. If it comes close to the forecast, buyers should be able to purchase regularly without committing to large volumes in advance. Producers have less flexibility: harvesting costs arrive over a short period, alongside wages, energy and payments to suppliers. Several may need to sell at once, accepting lower offers even if they believe prices will improve later. This can depress prices for weeks without implying that the crop will remain unsold at the end of the season.

High costs will not necessarily prevent those sales. An operator who needs cash may accept a price that covers immediate payments but falls short of the full cost of production.

September sales of 123,486 tonnes, reported by Olimerca, give producers some encouragement. Closing stocks were also below the approximately 374,000 tonnes used in our earlier outlook. Both figures moderate the expectation of further price falls. Several more monthly balances will be needed, however, before stronger sales can be treated as a sustained recovery in demand.

Spain's increase also needs to be considered alongside production elsewhere. Tunisia's National Chamber of Olive Producers has estimated a crop of approximately 300,000 tonnes, against 500,000 tonnes in the previous season. That remains a sector estimate, but the implied reduction would offset much of Spain's expected increase. European buyers' access to Tunisian oil will depend on how much is exported and when it is offered. Spain's proposed withdrawal mechanism could also reduce the oil offered during the harvest if implemented. Its effect would depend on the volume withheld and the storage period; temporarily stored oil would still have to be accounted for when it returned to the market.