OliveTerm Premium Research · October 2026

Fifteen campaigns in Andalucía show an average gap of about 10% between the opening aforo and recorded production. The differences have gone both ways, sometimes exceeding 200,000 tonnes.

Spain entered the 2026/27 campaign with an official production forecast of 1.60 million tonnes. Buyers are deciding how much supply to secure, while growers and mills have harvest bills to finance against oil still to be produced. Those decisions begin before olive tonnage and extraction yields can be confirmed.

OliveTerm compared the opening aforos for fifteen Andalusian campaigns, from 2010/11 to 2024/25, with recorded production. The average absolute difference was approximately 104,000 tonnes, or 10.2% when each campaign's percentage deviation receives equal weight. With Andalucía accounting for almost 79% of the current Spanish forecast, such differences can materially change the national supply outlook.

Fifteen campaigns in Andalucía

The Junta's archive of original aforos provides opening estimates published in September or October, before the main harvest.