Rainfall and early harvest reports will help buyers assess the Spanish forecast, while Tunisia's production outlook complicates the prospect of more abundant supply. The closing figures for the old campaign will take longer to establish.
The first full week of the 2026/27 campaign opens with a clearer estimate of Spanish production and considerable uncertainty over how much oil sellers will bring to market at current prices. MAPA's preliminary forecast, published on 1 October, puts Spain's crop at 1.60 million tonnes, 23% above the previous campaign. Buyers have a stronger basis for expecting greater availability, although the ministry explicitly leaves the final result dependent on weather and oil yields over the coming weeks.[1]
What to watch
Where the rain falls
AEMET's outlook, issued on 2 October, points to unsettled weather across Spain during the coming week, with rain and showers likely in much of the country. Heavier precipitation is possible in the far north, mountain areas, the Mediterranean side of the peninsula and around the Balearic Islands. Temperatures should generally be close to seasonal norms, with warmer conditions in some coastal areas and the islands.[2]
For the olive trade, the distribution matters more than a wet national forecast. The question is how much rain reaches producing areas such as Jaén and Córdoba, particularly their rainfed groves. MAPA has already identified the effects of summer heat on rainfed olives as a source of uncertainty in its estimate. Local rainfall observations and subsequent reports on fruit condition will therefore be more useful than assuming that widespread showers settle the production outlook.[1][2]
Tunisia remains an open question
Spain's expected increase needs to be considered alongside a potentially smaller Tunisian harvest. In a 3 September interview with Mosaïque FM, Najah Saïdi Hamed, president of Tunisia's olive producers' chamber, put prospective 2026/27 output at around 300,000 tonnes, against approximately 500,000 tonnes in the previous season. She attributed much of the expected decline to alternate bearing. These are industry estimates, and the comparison remains provisional.[3]
According to ONAGRI figures reported by Mosaïque, the country exported 381,200 tonnes between November 2025 and August 2026, up 50.8% from the same period a year earlier. A smaller Tunisian harvest could leave less oil available to overseas buyers, potentially shifting some of their purchases towards Spain and helping absorb its larger crop.[4]
Tunisia's official production estimates could be released this week.
The closing balance comes later
Spain's September sales and closing stocks remain a separate piece of the supply picture. AICA has extended the SIMO declaration deadline to Tuesday 13 October because 10 October falls on a Saturday and Monday 12 October is a national holiday. This is a reporting deadline, not an announced publication date for the completed balance.[5]
The week's calendar
| Timing | What to follow |
|---|---|
| Throughout 5–11 October | Observed rainfall in Spanish producing regions and updates to local forecasts. |
| As reports emerge | New-season offers, completed business and early mill results, keeping crop year and grade distinct. |
| Possible this week | Tunisia's official production estimates. |
| Next week: Tuesday 13 October | Extended deadline for Spain's SIMO declarations; not a confirmed release date for market data. |
Our read
The larger Spanish forecast gives buyers more room to negotiate. A sustained fall in prices would also require sellers to accept lower bids in meaningful volumes. We would give more weight to evidence of repeat transactions than to isolated opening offers: the price at which a small parcel is advertised says less about the campaign than the terms on which mills and packers agree to keep doing business.
Information checked through Sunday 4 October 2026. Crop forecasts and the desk's interpretation are distinguished from recorded trade figures.
Sources
- MAPA: First Spanish olive oil production forecast for 2026/27, 1 October 2026. Preliminary national estimate.
- AEMET: Forecast for 5–25 October 2026, issued 2 October. The first forecast period covers the coming week.
- Mosaïque FM: Interview with Najah Saïdi Hamed on the Tunisian production outlook, 3 September 2026. Industry projection, not an official national forecast.
- Mosaïque FM: Tunisian olive oil exports, reporting ONAGRI data, 23 September 2026. Reporting period: November 2025–August 2026.
- AICA: SIMO deadline-extension notice, checked 4 October 2026.