OliveTerm

Market Outlook

ES

Spain Extra Virgin Olive Oil

ES-EV

Andalusia bulk at origin, ≤0.8° acidity · last price 31 Jul 2026

Reference price

€3.56/kg

7 days

+3.8%

30 days

-5.8%

01

Outlook

Reviewed 30 Jul 2026
90-day outlookStableDesk view

Stable to upward

ConfidenceMediumDesk view

Price and stock readings are current. What nobody can see yet is the size of the new crop, and that is what decides the 90-day view. The desk would rather say medium and be believed than say high and be wrong in October.

Market View

OliveTerm research desk
30 Jul 2026

The July low increasingly looks like the low of the campaign.

Price action

The slide that took Spanish extra virgin from €4.40 in February to €3.43 on 20 July is finished. The market has held above €3.50 in every session since, and a decline that stops on a round number and then does not go back to test it is not a pause — it is sellers stepping back.

Fundamentals, The other side, Desk conclusion and the condition that would change this view continue below.

Members only

The rest of this outlook is for members

  • Every driver behind the call, with the figure and the source for each
  • Scenario analysis with the probability the desk puts on each outcome
  • Thirteen campaigns of carry-out stocks, seven years of export destinations, prices by grade
  • The catalyst calendar, and the dated record of every change of view

Free. No card, no trial clock — OliveTerm asks who you are so the desk knows who it is writing for.

Sources. Prices, stocks, production and shelf prices come from the OliveTerm database. Carry-out stocks by campaign come from the European Commission's olive oil balance sheet; the trade and demand charts from Eurostat Comext (dataset DS-045409, HS 1509) on a calendar-year basis, which is not the same twelve months as an olive oil campaign — each chart says which period it covers. The catalyst calendar is taken from the publishing bodies, with a source on every entry. Everything else on this page — the direction, the 90-day call, the confidence rating, the written view, the drivers and the scenarios — is the desk's judgement, and is not investment advice.