Origin prices eased again this week. The next test comes on Tuesday, when Andalusia is due to publish its first estimate of the 2026/27 harvest after a dry September.
The week in numbers
OliveTerm origin price board, latest values dated 21 September (€/kg)
| Market | Price | One week | One year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain extra virgin | 3.37€ | −1.2% | −21.1% |
| Spain virgin | 3.17€ | −1.3% | −12.2% |
| Spain lampante | 3.00€ | −1.3% | −13.5% |
| Italy extra virgin | 4.77€ | −1.0% | −49.7% |
| Portugal extra virgin | 3.65€ | −1.4% | −12.0% |
| Greece extra virgin | 3.54€ | −1.1% | −19.0% |
| Tunisia extra virgin | 3.68€ | −1.1% | — |
Spain held 475,434 tonnes of olive oil at the end of August, according to provisional AICA data.
What happened this week
Spain's first crop estimate is already contested
ASAJA Córdoba has asked the Andalusian government to postpone the aforo scheduled for Tuesday 29 September. Its concern is that field observations gathered weeks ago may overstate the oil ultimately extracted from fruit now exposed to heat and a lack of rain. Agriculture minister Luis Planas says the national estimate, due in early October, must be published under the usual timetable and can be revised. Growers fear that a large opening number would encourage buyers to wait while Spanish origin prices remain near their recent lows.
The argument is about oil yield as much as fruit on the trees. OliveTerm's crop monitor rates the oil-fill phase as poor in all four Spanish regions it follows. In Andalusia, it records just 1mm of rain over the past 30 days, against a seasonal norm of 25mm. The ministry's earlier expectation of a Spanish crop larger than last season's followed favourable spring flowering and fruit set; September's conditions have made the conversion of that fruit into oil less certain. The monitor measures growing conditions rather than predicting final production.
Deoleo's sale remains unresolved
Dcoop said its offer had expired at the end of August, while Spanish reports place Italy's Coricelli ahead in the bidding with a proposal valuing Deoleo at around 500M€. Deoleo has confirmed that its shareholders are examining strategic options but has announced no transaction. For Spanish producers, the practical issue is how a new owner would buy bulk oil and manage Deoleo's industrial operations, whatever the buyer's nationality.
Spanish growers press for tougher fraud controls
ASAJA, COAG, UPA and Cooperativas Agro-alimentarias have asked Spain's government to introduce criminal penalties for serious breaches of olive oil quality and labelling rules. They also want inspections to check industrial processes and mass balances for unlawful additions of seed, pomace or deodorised oils, as well as an ICO credit line to help Spanish mills finance supply-management measures. Their demands come as AEMO estimates that current origin prices leave roughly three-quarters of Spain's olive-growing area operating at a loss.
Elsewhere in the market
Several Spanish supermarket chains have reduced extra virgin shelf prices, according to Las Provincias. Retail prices move at a different pace from bulk quotations and vary by brand and pack size.
In Portugal, Olivum expects the 2026/27 crop to approach 177,000 tonnes, roughly 10% above its own estimate of 160,000 tonnes for 2025/26. The comparison changes if the previous campaign is measured against the Portuguese statistical institute's forecast of around 179,000 tonnes: on that basis, 177,000 tonnes would be broadly flat. The two estimates of last season have not been reconciled. Olivum also reports that agricultural diesel prices in mainland Portugal are about 60% higher than in the comparable period of the previous campaign.
Tunisian imports remain a point of dispute in Spain. Planas has argued that they are too small to drive Spanish prices: the 83,187 tonnes imported through June represented about 5.2% of the olive oil available in Spain during that period. Producer organisations continue to press for tighter controls on the import regime.
Our read
OliveTerm's three Spanish grades all fell by around 1.2–1.3% over the week. Extra virgin stands at 3.37€/kg and lampante at 3.00€/kg, leaving a premium of 0.37€/kg, compared with roughly 0.80€/kg a year ago. The gap remains narrow, although this week's nearly uniform declines offer little evidence of a fresh shift towards either grade. Relative prices alone cannot establish how much oil of each quality remains in storage.
Italy's extra virgin premium over the Spanish price has also contracted, to 1.40€/kg from roughly 5.20€/kg a year ago. The expected Ismea–Unaprol assessment of Italy's next crop should give buyers another piece of the supply picture, though its publication date has not been confirmed.
For Spain, ASAJA Jaén estimates a carryover of around 350,000 tonnes if September sales reach 120,000–125,000 tonnes. That would give buyers some room to wait for evidence. A restrained Andalusian aforo could lend prices support; a large figure could add to the recent downward pressure.