Olive Oil Price in July 2026
In July 2026, Spanish extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) at origin traded around €3.55/kg (roughly €355 per 100 kg in the Jaén benchmark) — down about 20% from its late-March peak of €4.43/kg and still falling, with no clear floor in place. What looked in spring like a market that would firm has instead spent three straight months correcting.
This page summarises where prices sit, why they are falling, and what to watch for the rest of the year. For the full breakdown — charts, scenarios and strategy — read the complete July 2026 Market Report.
Olive Oil Prices by Origin — July 2026
- Spain (Jaén): ~€3.55/kg, the reference for the global bulk market, down from €4.43/kg in late March.
- Italy (Bari): ~€6.00/kg — still a large premium, the legacy of a short 2025/26 Italian crop.
- Greece: tracking Spain lower, into the mid-€3.60s/kg.
- Portugal: ~€3.50/kg, a small discount to Spain.
- Tunisia: ~€3.85/kg — and, remarkably, now level with or above Spain. The discount that defined Tunisian oil through the first half of 2026 has vanished as Spain fell faster.
Why Are Olive Oil Prices Falling in 2026?
Two forces drove the decline, and they reinforced each other:
- A recovery harvest in sight. After two disastrous drought years, the 2026/27 Spanish crop is shaping up as a strong rebound — the IOC's first estimate puts Spain near 1.55 million tonnes, up from 1.39 Mt. Field checks found Jaén's trees carrying heavy loads. A bigger crop means lower prices.
- The tariff window closed. Buyers had spent the spring positioning for a tariff-free window into the United States. The new EU-US trade deal ended that (see below), removing a key source of demand that had been propping origin up.
The EU-US Tariff Change That Reset the Market
On 1 July 2026, the EU-US framework agreement went live, replacing the temporary Section 122 surcharge with a flat 15% all-inclusive tariff on EU goods, including olive oil. For exporters this was a net increase, and it erased the tariff-free window the market had been trading toward. The Section 122 expiry on 24 July — once a pivotal date — became a non-event for European origin.
Heat Risk and the 2026/27 Harvest
The one thing the falling market is not pricing is weather. Two heatwaves hit Andalusia — one in mid-June and a severe episode from 5–11 July with peaks of 42–44°C — and cooperative agronomists have already logged verified fruitlet losses in eastern Jaén, Granada and Almería. The recovery crop is still expected to be large, but it is being trimmed week by week. If the damage compounds, today's soft prices could reverse sharply.
Olive Oil Price Forecast — Q4 2026
- Base case (~50%): Jaén holds €3.30–€3.90/kg as the recovery crop lands close to estimates.
- Downside (~25%): a confirmed big harvest and soft export demand push prices to €3.00–€3.30/kg — pre-2024-cycle levels.
- Upside (~25%): compounding heat damage forces the market to re-price the risk it has been ignoring, lifting Jaén to €4.00–€4.60/kg.
The pivotal data points are the August pre-harvest assessments and the October aforo survey in Andalusia.
Prices cited are indicative origin bulk levels drawn from the OliveTerm index and public sources through mid-July 2026, and do not constitute financial or commercial advice.