Olive Oil Price History: 2015–2026

Understanding where olive oil prices have been is essential context for understanding where they might go. The past decade has seen remarkable volatility, culminating in the historic price spike of 2023–2025.

The Low-Price Era (2015–2020)

From 2015 to 2020, olive oil prices were characterised by relative stability and, in some years, genuine oversupply. Spanish EVOO bulk prices traded in the €2.50–€3.50/kg range for much of this period, with periodic dips below €2.00/kg during bumper harvest years.

This era created complacency among buyers and discouraged investment in production capacity, setting the conditions for the subsequent price shock.

The First Signs of Change (2021–2022)

The 2021/22 season delivered a strong global harvest, briefly pushing prices back toward the low end of historical ranges. However, rising energy and input costs were already beginning to increase the structural floor price for production.

The Price Shock (2023–2024)

The 2022/23 Spanish harvest collapsed due to severe drought — one of the worst on record for Andalusia. This sent EVOO bulk prices from €3.50/kg in early 2022 to over €9.00/kg by mid-2023. The shock was amplified by historically low inventory levels across the supply chain.

The 2023/24 season offered no relief, with another below-average Spanish harvest keeping prices elevated. EVOO at origin briefly touched €10.00+/kg in late 2023.

Partial Recovery (2025–2026)

The 2025/26 harvest recovery has brought EVOO origin prices back toward the €4-4.5/kg range — still above the 2015–2020 baseline. Most analysts believe prices will not return to pre-2023 levels given higher structural costs and growing demand.